I'm really curious to see how the used electric car market shapes up.
New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks.
But younger folks might not want the same thing as older folks. One niche example is the manual transmission. Looking at a car like the Mazda Miata - something like a third of those are sold new with an automatic transmission. The buyers (again, maybe older) don't want to bother shifting their own gears, so they pay an extra $1k or so for an automatic. But when those cars are affordable used cars, and the market is younger car enthusiasts, Miatas with an automatic transmission are worth quite a bit less. The preferences of the new $30k convertible buyers aren't the same as the preferences of the used $5k convertible buyers, even though those $30k cars eventually become the $5k cars.
With electric cars I wonder if we'll see a similar divide. I know a few people (software engineers who own their own single family homes) who have bought new electric cars. Folks I know from less wealthy walks of life (daycare providers, teachers, grad students, etc) have not bought used electric cars. Surely that's at least partially because used electric cars don't exist in great numbers, but I also wonder if those folks (people who rent, or move often, etc) might be less enamored with a car where they don't know they'll be able to charge it at home, or a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc.
I'm hoping for an electric future and I want my next car to be electric ... I'm just really curious to see if/when middle- and lower-class Americans start adopting these in large numbers.
>a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc.
This has actually stopped me from buying a used EV in the last year, twice. Dealers aren't up front about used cars history in general, and, again from just the two I looked at, they are 1000% hiding any information they can regarding the battery packs.
This is the largest hurdle to the used car market (after the shortage of used EV's because of their novelty). People hesitate to buy used combustion cars, because of unknown mechanical issues that may pop up; but this can be alleviated by using a trusted mechanic to once-over the car. They ABSOLUTELY hesitate to buy used EV's because of the battery packs, and who can you go to in order to evaluate that? Nobody.
>I'm just really curious to see if/when middle- and lower-class Americans start adopting these in large numbers.
When they have no choice. I'm in this boat - I work in education and my spouse works in education. We are solidly middle- to lower-middle class. We can't afford most new cars. Used cars are pricey anymore as well. The only way we will upgrade to an EV is if we can find a trustworthy used model, or when we have no choice, because gas is $10/gallon.
The computer on an EV will tell me the state of the battery. You can ship an ICE over to the best mechanic in the world, and that mechanic won't be able to reliably tell you state of, for example, the bottom end bearings. Not without cracking the engine open, anyway. A compression test will reveal a lot, but it could still break a piston ring tomorrow.
That said, I'd not hesitate to buy a Honda with over 100K miles on the clock. But the point is that checking the state of a singular point of most likely failure (battery) is many orders easier to check than the state of an ICE.
Leak down test, oil pressure, opening the filler cap for blow by, sound... Plenty of accessible options there that will diagnose a bad bottom-end or piston rings. Further, your average Joe can replace crank bearings in an afternoon and many could re-ring an engine with some help from youtube. Your average Honda will need this once every 200-400k miles (14-25 average 14k driving years) with proper oil changes.
There are a lot more components (cells) in a battery pack than rotating components in an average engine. I'm unsure if they're generally individually addressable, but I know they're not designed to be serviced at the cell level. That has you replacing the battery pack any time there is a problem, a many thousands of dollars adventure just in parts. There's also no major differentiator from a software perspective between "the battery is old and has reduced capacity" and "the battery is swelling and has reduced capacity". The latter could lead without warning to a catastrophic failure that would make a ringland failure laughable.
I do appreciate your view is held by many consumers who purchase a new or certified pre-owned car every N years. For those in lower income brackets (including most countries in the world) or who like to buy things that last, electric cars don't seem to carry a huge value proposition over a traditional ICE car.
who like to buy things that last, electric cars don't seem to carry a huge value proposition over a traditional ICE car.
Our Scion xB has over 100K miles on it, and our Leaf is one of the first to roll off the line. We tend to keep things. And I'm perfectly happy with the value proposition of even that early-adopter tech. There's a lot more to EV ownership than just range and battery life. Ten years later, I can hardly wait for our next vehicle that we'll drive the wheels off of...and it will be electric.
EDIT: and if you can get the oil pan off a modern car without removing the engine or at least undoing the mounts and $STUFF so it can be jacked up (thereby cancelling any "in an afternoon" of changing crank bearings), you're a better mechanic than I ever was (and I used to do it for a living).
Having an expert analyse your car by sight and sound is decidedly different than you popping open the OBD2 port in an EV, opening an app on your phone and checking directly what condition the battery is in.
I don't know about other EVs, but the Leaf shows the battery capacity on the dashboard at all times - if you know how to read it. I had to google it because the salesman had no idea.
The first leaf we looked at was already down to 80%, but the second was in perfect condition at two years old, and is still in perfect condition at age six.
In a way it is much easier to evaluate the condition of an EV battery than in internal combustion engine: start with a full charge and see how far you can drive. It may take some time, but there's really no way to fake a good battery for that kind of test.
That’s kind of funny to me. I’m old and I’ve got a manual transmission Saab. Young people who get in the car with me (back before COVID) have literally asked what that thing (the shifter) is.
Yeah, obviously the Miata buyers are not necessarily the average young person, but that market niche is definitely there. I think the issue of which features are desirable in new vs older cars holds though. Another example could be 4x4s - 4Runners, Land Rovers, etc - most of these are bought as family cars, and those first buyers are looking for niceties like high-end stereos, leather seats, etc. But once the trucks are older, people care less about an obsolete stereo or worn leather and more about which suspension or other off-road options it has, etc.
Going down a bit of a rabbithole there, but I'm still curious to see what the perceived desirability of used electric cars turns out to be for "average" Americans.
I had a stick shift Honda del Sol until about a year ago. One of the last times I had it in at the dealer, the service rep had to get one of the techs to bring the car around to me after I settled up because she couldn't drive it.
I'm a MT diehard (owned 9 cars in my life, 9 of which were MTs), and I'm trying to think what my must have feature is for an EV.
Probably some sort of aggressive or responsive driving mode. I mean, the reason I go with MTs is because I love how responsive it is. I still giggle when I'm driving around at 4000 RPMs and punch the throttle to get that instant thrust. Even with manual shifting modes on automatics, it's not the same because the torque converters mute this responsiveness.
I've never driven a Tesla or anything, but I expect that they aren't so hyper-responsive under normal driving conditions because it would be pretty fatiguing to drive. Adding that back I think is must have for me to go full EV and not keep around a Miata or WRX for fun driving.
My "save the manuals" score isn't as high as yours (I've owned 6 cars, 5 of which were stick-shift), but I do vastly prefer changing my own gears to automatics or CVTs.
That said, if you get a chance to drive a Tesla or similar, try it out! I did a test drive and liked it more than I thought I would. To me, the throttle response felt immediate and direct, reminiscent of driving a manual-shift car in the correct gear. You're just ALWAYS in the correct gear!
That being said, I suspect I'll probably do the same as you and keep a fun, old-fashioned ICE roadster in the garage for the occasional spin.
Every car I've owned except for a $300 beater in college was manual transmission (including a modified WRX STi) and my Model 3 Performance is much more responsive to the "throttle" than any of them. The speed of electricity is much higher than fuel pumps and gasoline. And the regenerative braking does a pretty good imitation of a manual transmission's compression braking when you lift.
Here's a quote from Car & Driver's review of the 2018 Model 3 P (which has since been made faster through software):
"This Model 3 needed only 1.4 seconds to leap from 30 to 50 mph and just 2.0 seconds to get from 50 to 70. Never mind other sports sedans—they're not competitive by this measure. This Tesla's mid-range acceleration tops the performance of 700-hp sports cars like the Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 and Porsche 911 GT2 RS, in which there's a moment's delay while automatic transmissions downshift and engines rev up. And the Tesla does it without drama beyond the alarming way it pushes you back into the seat as the car closes on any traffic ahead. There's no jerk and no roar—plant your foot on the accelerator and it simply goes."
I'm in the UK, so have only owned manual cars before I switched to EVs. I hate the lack of responsiveness on automatic transmission ICEs, but EVs are great, even cheaper ones. The power is instant. A Tesla has more torque than pretty much any ICE car.
Of the ~20k used electric cars listed on cars.com, ~3k are $10k or less. Mostly Nissan Leafs and Chevy Sparks, so it depends on your definition of decent :).
I used to drive a Leaf and it was more enjoyable to drive than the Mercedes E Class that I drove when my Tesla was being repaired. EV torque is fun, and you miss it when you go back to an ICE.
You can buy a 2011 Leaf for about 3 grand. Sure, the battery is probably toast, but replace it for 5 grand, you're still well under 10, and now you have 100 miles of range and a car with the only wearable item brand new.
Sadly, Nissan has jacked up the price of battery replacement to I think 8k now, which turns my car into scrap in 5 years unless a third party steps in.
I think those average numbers get skewed by expensive SUVs and luxury cars. You don’t need to spend $30k to get something decent and new, I think my Mazda 3 was like $17k in 2016. I think we’ll need a combo of good used prices like you mention as well as new prices comparable to a Corolla to see mass adoption.
Battery pack depreciation is the one thing that worries me the most.
But I wonder if it would be possible and cost effective to test cells and combine the cells that are still good into a newer battery pack. Maybe by the manufacturer.
Or to just rate an existing one and give it a score so the consumer can have a clue.
The batteries themselves already have sensors you can query for individual battery pack (a bunch of cells) voltages. Replacing a set of cells inside a battery isn't a completely trivial operation, but still doable, people are already doing this for Priuses and Nissan Leafs - the only two cars old enough to have batteries go bad outside of warranty.
The 3rd party battery industry will catch up when cars get old enough to have battery issues.
On the other hand, according to recent studies, EV batteries don't really degrade that much over time. Leaf is the exception, because the battery temperature management was utter shit.
So far it's only Nissan that has pretty bad batteries. AFAIK everyone else actively manages the temperature when charging/discharging and are over-provisioned.
Plus batteries are getting dirt cheap. As in - TCO is less than your tyres.
Yeah, you basically need to own a home to have an electric car right now. Many blue-collar workers who have to drive around a lot in the middle of nowhere are also excluded at least for the next few years.
Do you not understand there are these things called "industrial parks" "distribution centers" or "factories" that are often not put anywhere near houses due to noise, odor, and other reasons? Many of them in my town are often 30 + min trips one way down roads where there are barely any houses, let alone places that could host a charger.
Another example; one time I worked for an inventory service which are the people who count goods in stores and other places. We often spent 45 minutes plus getting to stores, and one particularly wonderful refrigerated warehouse was located in another state.
You all need to get there is a whole other world besides people who can work remote or knowledge professionals who walk ten minutes to their 9-5 job. In my career many people often commute from 30+ one way minute drives because there's only so many places where you can actually work at.
If your daily job involves long-ass drives in the middle of nowhere, do not, I repeat, do not get an EV unless you know exactly what you're getting in to.
> The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers.
I haven't found this stat to be particularly compelling. Other than indicating that buyers of new cars are willing to spend money on extra features.
There are tons of cars at much more affordable prices. They are across the board safer, more reliable, more fuel efficient, and last longer than pretty much any historical vehicles. In 2006, the average vehicle life expectancy was about 8 years, 150k miles. Now it's 12+ years, 200k+ miles.
I like your Miata example, mostly because I think it may illustrate that the problem won't exist for EVs. Range is king in EVs, new or used. I can't think of any EV feature quite like a stick shift in an ICE car.
I actually am seeing lots of used EVs here in Portland. Mostly Nissan Leafs. They are dirt cheap to buy and nearly free to operate (especially given their terrible range). If you have a commute under 20 miles, you can't do better than an EV that's 5+ years old.
Tesla is still selling every car it can make and used Tesla command nearly new prices. I think the new end of the market isn’t saturated yet, and used prices won’t start coming down to affordable levels for the bulk of the used market until the demand of the new end is met.
It isn’t a problem; clean, efficient ICE vehicles are being sold by EV buyers and replacing older, dirtier cars in a cascade which is exactly what you want. Trickle-down, basically.
> The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older.
One might think this to be the case, but the breakdown of new car buyers shows about the same % of buyers make <50k as those who make >100k (roughly 1/3rd in each cohort, but varies based on vehicle type). Sadly, many of those buyers will take out out a 72-84mo loan that they probably can't afford in order to pay for that new car.
We priced out pickup trucks recently for shits and giggles (because we live in rural america and really have a decently often use for one).
They're so expensive. And the dealer pushes the 84+ month loan to bring the payment down. Like, I get that it's a $450/month payment, and that's supposed to sound reasonable (it isn't reasonable, at 3/4 the cost of our mortgage). But it's for 8 years! There's no way this truck is going to last that long. Who does this? Why?
> There's no way this truck is going to last that long.
I agree with everything you said up til this point. Unless you crash into a brick wall, a modern pickup will last at least 20 years. Look on Craigslist or FB marketplace for 2005ish F-250s - they’re still fetching 5 figures...
Heck, I won’t even look at a truck less than 8 years old until my next stock option boat comes in...
The recent increase in EV demand has come entirely from Europe. Really. China and the US were flat for the year, and pretty much all the gains came from Europe, where BEV and PHEVs are selling like hot cakes.
There are also some electric cars being sold for the lower end of the market, mainly because auto manufacturers have to comply with CO2 legislation and they can't do that only by selling expensive PHEVs, much as they would prefer to. On top of that, with more and more charging stations being built in cities and on highways, range anxiety is not as much as it used to be. Pretty much all new BEVs can go 200km in a charge and charge reasonably fast.
I believe 2021 this trend will only accelerate, especially in the US with Biden coming in.
New cars (electric or not) are pretty expensive. The average price of a new car in the US just topped $40k, which is out of reach of many car buyers. The people who buy new obviously tend to be well-off, and are often older. Then at some point down the road, those cars end up in the hands of (on average) younger, less-wealthy folks.
But younger folks might not want the same thing as older folks. One niche example is the manual transmission. Looking at a car like the Mazda Miata - something like a third of those are sold new with an automatic transmission. The buyers (again, maybe older) don't want to bother shifting their own gears, so they pay an extra $1k or so for an automatic. But when those cars are affordable used cars, and the market is younger car enthusiasts, Miatas with an automatic transmission are worth quite a bit less. The preferences of the new $30k convertible buyers aren't the same as the preferences of the used $5k convertible buyers, even though those $30k cars eventually become the $5k cars.
With electric cars I wonder if we'll see a similar divide. I know a few people (software engineers who own their own single family homes) who have bought new electric cars. Folks I know from less wealthy walks of life (daycare providers, teachers, grad students, etc) have not bought used electric cars. Surely that's at least partially because used electric cars don't exist in great numbers, but I also wonder if those folks (people who rent, or move often, etc) might be less enamored with a car where they don't know they'll be able to charge it at home, or a depleted battery pack means less range or costly repair, etc.
I'm hoping for an electric future and I want my next car to be electric ... I'm just really curious to see if/when middle- and lower-class Americans start adopting these in large numbers.