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Exactly. This is India vs the British Empire, non-violence is the only thing that stands a chance.
I completely agree. I have been thinking that just thwarting the agent provocateurs and hot-headed protestors would be a giant task for protest leadership in itself. It should actually be priority number one. I admit it's easy for me to say that when I'm not being confronted by police and getting caught up in the fever of the crowd.
Say Hong Kong did have something like the 2nd amendment, and more private firearms than citizens just like the USA.
What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army?
> What are the strategies and tactics that these people could use to win a military campaign against the might and weaponry of Chinese People’s Liberation Army?
Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies. Pot shots and IEDs, sabotage, et cetera would have made China’s occupation of Hong Kong a PITA. It would raise the stakes of invasion from worldwide outrage to having to destroy Hong Kong in a Pyrrhic victory.
> Modern warfare hasn’t figured out urban insurgencies.
Only in a sense of US rules of engagement.
However, look at other less scrupulous countries dealing with urban combat and you will see that while bloody they can pacify quickly.
If you know that resisting means death of your family, you're less likely to resist.
If your neighbour's best way to safeguard his family is to expose every guerilla fighter he knows he will do it.
The thing is, it won't be pyhrric victory, it will be a full and near lossless victory for PLA. Most HKers will lay down their arms because people generally dont want to die in a hopeless struggle and collective punishment will flush out the remaining guerrillas.
I dont think it would have that bad of consequences. Look at what Saudis are doing, they literally are leveling blocks and no one really does anything about it.
This is far from universal. Chechnya was bloody. Syria remains bloody. Short of razing a city, we don’t have great tools for fighting urban insurgencies.
The problem with urban insurgencies is the people who don't carry firearms, not the ones that do. If you can identify the combatants, it is much easier to kill them.
> I'm sure the people of Hong Kong would end up better this way
We’re exploring the hypothetical military suppression of Hong Kong’s system of laws and government. Nothing is good in this scenario. The options are coöperation (and likely concentration camps), escape and resistance.
Hong Kong can’t win a war against China. It’s too vulnerable to blockade. Barring a Berlin airlift, their strategy would be waiting out Xi with urban guerrilla tactics.
Urban armed resistance in Hong Kong would be insanely difficult to deal with.
The city is all sky scrapers with tiny winding streets and secret entrances and exits to and from everywhere. Resistance could probably persist for decades unless China were willing to just level the islands and start over.
Kind of like random Iraqi and Afghani militias not being capable or resisting US marines. Oh wait. You’d be surprised what an armed population can do to resist a superior force when it comes to guerilla warfare.
HK is very small; that would worry me. If you have ever been there... I walk everything there; I only take the MTR to cross Kowloon<>Central or the ferry Lamma<>Central. There is some beautiful nature but it is not vast; there is no massive landmass to hide out etc. We are talking 400.000+ km^2 vs less than 1500 km^2... You cannot 'retreat to the mountain hideouts'.
Maybe. Maybe not. The military being ordered to fire at their fellow citizens and ethnic group is very different than being told to kill people they don’t know on the other side of the world.
Morale undermining command and control is a real issue in the military and a frequent issue historically.
Actually in most industrialized countries one can possess a firearm with a permit. It's just that the restrictions are extreme, and getting one is also extremely difficult.
I'm living in the UK and I could get a rifle licence if I really wanted to, it's just that the restrictions are far too severe. Must be straight-pull that's manufactured that way, not converted. Makes an AR-15 equivalent worth $5k. That is after you have spent a year on getting the permit and other technicalities.
Instead I just travel to eastern europe or the United States every now and then to shoot some guns as the rules are a lot more lax in say, Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic and Latvia. In those countries you can generally go to a range and they'll accomodate you. Although ammunition costs about 5-10x what it would cost in the States.
