> What is a really interesting takeaway is that if in an event where the outcome you desire based appears unlikely, your job is introduce as much previously undefined or discounted uncertainty. Ideally you engineer a black swan event or at least do what you can to make it happen. This would be fun to model from a game-theory approach instead.

In chess, if you are behind, John Nunn's two recommended strategies are "grim defence" (if your opponent's advantage is not so large as to make it easy for them to force a win) and "create confusion": create complicated tactical situations and hope your opponent makes a mistake. The farther behind you are, the more appealing "create confusion" gets by comparison.